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Archive for the ‘Capital Growth’ Category

Source

AUSTRALIA’S housing market is unlikely to suffer a “structural collapse” on the scale of America’s property rout, a new report says.

This is despite deep household vulnerability to further rate rises.

But the two-speed economy is a “serious problem” for the market, with confidence sliding as weak demand buffets employers in the retail, manufacturing and tourism sectors.

The report, by investment research group Morningstar, comes as Housing Industry Association data reveals that sales of new homes in April were down 10 per cent on the same month a year ago.

About 7700 new homes were sold nationwide – up 0.2 per cent on the March sales, but down from about 8600 a year earlier.

HIA chief economist Harley Dale said the rate of new unit sales was about half the long-term average, while new home sales were more than 20 per cent below long-term figures.

“That profile is an unfortunate indictment of the weak new home building conditions … but it’s nothing compared to what we’ll see if another rate hike bullet is fired,” Mr Dale said.

In research on the outlook for the banking sector, Morningstar’s analysts said uncertainty in share markets was also sapping confidence in the property market at a time when households were already highly geared.

But despite softening house prices, there was “no cause for alarm” for the banking sector, the Morningstar report said.

It comes amid speculation that professional investors are short-selling Australian banks as a means of betting that house prices will fall.

Short sellers effectively gamble on falling stock prices by borrowing shares and selling them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price.

Shares in all four major banks fell heavily last week and lost further ground yesterday.

The Morningstar research team, led by head of Australian banking research David Ellis, urged investors holding shares in the major banks “to be patient”.

“Despite widespread coverage and speculation we do not see sufficient pressure on the sector to change our positive view.”

The report nominated the banks’ reliance on wholesale funding borrowed from international investors as a “structural weakness, but one that is slowly becoming less important”.

A major slowdown in Chinese economic activity would put downward pressure on bank share prices, it said.

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According to the Night Frank Global Price Index, Australia is 4th in the world for fastest property growth for the first quarter 2010
Knight Frank Global House Price Index, Quarter 1 2010
Annual (% change)
Six monthly (% change)
Quarterly (% change)
Rank
Location
World Region
Q1 2009-Q1 2010
Q3 2009-Q1 2010
Q4 2009-Q1 2010
1
China (key cities)
Asia Pacific
68.0%
NA
NA
2
Hong Kong
Asia Pacific
30.6%
10.3%
6.2%
3
Singapore
Asia Pacific
24.3%
12.5%
4.9%
4
Australia
Asia Pacific
20.0%
10.2%
4.8%
5
Israel
Middle East
15.9%
6.3%
2.2%
6
South Africa
Africa
11.8%
7.2%
3.8%
7
Canada
North America
11.6%
4.4%
1.0%
8
Finland
Europe
11.3%
5.1%
2.2%
9
Norway
Europe
10.8%
3.4%
3.4%
10
Sweden
Europe
10.7%
3.7%
1.9%
11
United Kingdom
Europe
8.8%
1.7%
0.5%
12
Austria
Europe
8.7%
4.8%
2.8%
13
India *
Asia Pacific
8.4%
8.0%
NA
14
Colombia *
South America
8.2%
3.8%
1.0%
15
New Zealand
Asia Pacific
6.8%
1.1%
0.5%
16
Switzerland
Europe
6.2%
2.5%
1.4%
17
Netherlands
Europe
6.1%
1.0%
1.4%
18
Luxembourg
Europe
5.6%
2.5%
2.2%
19
Portugal
Europe
3.8%
2.4%
0.3%
20
Malaysia *
Asia Pacific
3.3%
0.8%
-0.1%

* Countries yet to report Q1 2010 data, Q4 2009 data shown.

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